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Alex Wallace

Kelowna, Kelowna, Canada


Member since August 13, 2013

  • Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

    By Gary Tanashian

    The commodity complex is famous for a sort of ‘Whack-a-Mole’ quality to it. Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)? Uranium (2007)? Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)? Well today none of them are doing much. Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere. The result is this…

    The CCI index is at support but in an intermediate bear trend. A break of 550 brings on the commodity/inflation trade. That is a long way away and I have my doubts it will be able to get going any time soon. They are already talking about the death of the dollar again in the inflationist camp. That is because the dollar has been dropping hard. Here is the daily chart showing that it is simply in the same Reverse Symmetrical Triangle that we used to note its risk of correction in early July. Now we note its support, with maybe a little more downside room before it finds a platform from which it can rally again.

    Exercise caution when an inflationist tells you about hyperinflation and the death of the dollar. Again, NFTRH is not a gold bull and certainly not a gold stock bull because of the inflation argument. The gold sector analysis is bullish because the big picture economic contraction environment is intact and that is more likely to include a stronger dollar than a weak one. Here is the...