Hong Kong based equity researcher is predicting India to overtake China in economic power and population as well as the rise of the middle-class.
Jul. 17, 2013 - HONG KONG -- According to Lead Emerging Markets Specialist and Head of Investment Analysis Dr. Lian Cheung at The Woo Group in Hong Kong, India will surpass China as largest economy in the world in the next forty years. During a recent interview Dr. Cheung said, “We all know that China is on track to overtake Western and European economies in the next decade, but their position on top will be short lived.
China´s unprecedented social engineering project, the “One Child Policy” will have drastic effects on the future of the country. India´s population will most likely grow larger than China´s in the course of the next decade.”
A report entitled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” from the US National Intelligence Council stated there will be an inverse relationship between China and India. As China´s economy begins to slow, as we have seen this year with growth dropping below 8%, India will begin to experience a surge of economic power. The report also stated that the Chinese working population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to 961 million in 2030.
India, however, is facing many problems similar to China. There are massive inequities between rural and urban regions and even within the society. Increasing restrictions on basic resources such as, food and water are also a problem in India.
Dr Cheung is also predicting that the middle-class will be the largest segment of the population and that the poverty rate will drop by two-thirds by 2050. There will be improved standards of health and education, and this will enable more than two-thirds of the world´s population to live in cities. This will be the first time in history that most of the world´s population will not be in poverty, making the middle class the most important socio-economic area. Demand will boom for consumer goods such as cars and televisions.
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