the corliss group barcelona economy

the corliss group barcelona economy


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  • Hong-kong-budget-hong_177_

    Hong Kong's economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in three years in 2014, the government said on Wednesday, while slashing public welfare spending as it cautioned over global economic headwinds and projected a narrowing budget surplus.

    Corliss Online Financial Mag: Hong Kong's economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in three years in 2014, the government said on Wednesday, while slashing public welfare spending as it cautioned over global economic headwinds and projected a narrowing budget surplus.

    Financial Secretary John Tsang forecast growth of between three and four per cent, up from 2.9 per cent in 2013, as he announced a 40 per cent cut in welfare spending even as the government struggles to quell popular discontent over the city's high living costs and widening wealth gap.

    He warned the global economic outlook remained uncertain as the winding back of US monetary stimulus added to the risk of capital outflows and the sluggish eurozone recovery remained a cause for concern.

    "The US economy may see some improvement in 2014. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty over the Federal Reserve Board's... strategy and interest rate policy. Possible market fluctuations and the risk of reversal of capital flows will cast shadows... this year," Tsang said as he unveiled the annual budget.

    Tsang earmarked HK$20 billion ($2.58 billion) for one-off assistance for citizens such as tax cuts and welfare payments, down from HK$33 billion last year.

  • Economist: U.S. labor market recovery is a fraud

    University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith has this to say about the current labor market recovery: It’s a fraud.

    That’s because there’s more to assessing economic recovery than just monthly payroll job gains and a declining unemployment rate, he said.

    “You need to look at the number of jobs being created in the context of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy,” Snaith said. “The gap between payroll employment and the Congressional Budget Office estimates of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy is pretty darn scary right now.”

    If payroll job growth were to persist at the average level of the past three jobs reports and increase at just 148,000 jobs per month, it would take until December 2021 for employment to reach its CBO estimated potential, he added.

    In his 2013 third-quarter U.S. forecast, Snaith explains that by just focusing on the unemployment rate, many analysts erroneously are predicting a fast recovery that’s simply not there yet.

    That’s why it’s not surprising that consumers are holding back on spending, which in the past has brought the economy out of the doldrums, he said.

    Snaith was only one of four national economists to predict that the federal Reserve Bank would continue to funnel billions of dollars into the market on a daily basis as a way to help stimulate the economy and not begin tapering that process until 2014.

    “Will the Federal Reserve’s...

  • Cofm_177_

    There Will Be Fraud: A Shutdown Could Provide a Madoff Moment

    Updated at 5:01 p.m. to add commentary from Duke University law professor James Cox in paragraphs eight and nine.

    Plotting a pump-and-dump stock scheme? Waiting to trade on that hush-hush tip you got from a friend? Looking to corner the market on pork bellies? Now might be your chance for any and all of those shenanigans.

    The thousands of people who keep U.S. financial markets running smoothly and fraud-free could be on unpaid leave starting tomorrow, along with the National Park rangers that corral unruly grizzly bears and the scientists tracking deadly pathogens at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A few days ago, Bart Chilton, head of the U.S. Commodity Future Trading Commission, said the shutdown could have “disastrous impacts” for consumers. “You can bet the do-badders are licking their chops,” his statement read.

    The government will continue to employ workers “needed to … protect life or property.” At the CFTC, this amounts to a skeleton crew of about 30 people overseeing active court cases and performing a “bare minimum level of oversight and surveillance.” Some 650 others at the commission—including most of the investigation and enforcement staff, as well as the chief economist and public affairs personnel—will be furloughed, forbidden from even checking e-mail. Here’s the CFTC’s shutdown plan (PDF).

    The Securities and Exchange Commission said it will operate at ...

  • Source:

    Upbeat growth and unemployment reports from Spain led the country's stocks to rally on Tuesday, but some economists warned that hopes of an imminent recovery remained unrealistic.

    Spain's benchmark stock index, the IBEX 35, traded nearly 2 percent higher after the Bank of Spain released a report that estimated the economy shrank by only 0.1 percent in the second quarter — its smallest decline since it slid back into recession at the end of 2011.

    The Bank of Spain's quarterly bulletin is viewed as an accurate indicator of official gross domestic product (GDP) data, which are due on July 30. If the official numbers are in line with this estimate, it will suggest a deceleration in the pace of contraction. Spain's economy shrunk by 0.8 percent in the last quarter of 2012, and by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

    "If proven correct, this would be a stronger-than-expected GDP figure, more clearly signaling that the worst of the crisis is behind the country… and, in our view, would be consistent with positive growth for the second half of 2013," Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief euro area economist at Barclays Investment Bank, said on Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, Spain's ABC newspaper reported that official data out on Thursday will show the biggest quarterly fall in unemployment since before the economic crisis. Spain's rate of unemployment was 27.2 percent in the first quarter, and analysts expect it to fall to 26.7 percent in...

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